"Do you think the Heat stand any chance at all at winning the finals?"
Chuck: I personally feel like its 60-40 in favor of the Thunder right now. And that's with knowledge that the Thunder handily beat who I thought was the best team in the Spurs and the Heat struggled against an aging Celtics team with LeBron playing at a peak level. I feel like the Heat just suck at playing the Celtics and so that makes them look worse than they are especially when Bosh was out. My big if is if the Heat hit 3s they will come out on top otherwise I'll give it to the Thunder in 6.
Cody: Probably in the same boat with the Thunder in 6 or 7. The only person with a good match up for the Heat is Bosh, and we still don’t know if he can go 40 minutes. Heat haven’t played anyone with near the skill level that OKC has. Also OKC won't slap at the ball and pick up ticky tack fouls like Boston did. If LeBron gets to Ibaka or Perkins they are going to put him on his ass.
"What do you think the match ups will be?"
Chuck: I don't know if they do it or not but it seems like the Heat should put D-Wade on Russ, leaving Chalmers on Thabo, LeBron on KD, Bosh on Serge, and I guess starter number 5 (probly either Udonis or Joel) on Perkins. Two things that worry me if I'm the Heat is the Thunder will probably put Thabo on D-Wade and Russ on Chalmers. I feel like Chalmers and D-Wade are going to have a lot of TOs and Russ is going to get a lot of mean fast break dunks. The other big question is who's going to guard Harden. I assume Battier but have no idea how the subbing will play out.
Cody: Depends on who starts. If Bosh starts I see the following
Chalmers – Westbrook
Wade – Thabo
KD- LeBron
Bosh – Perkins
Haslem – Ibaka
That’s how the thunder will match up. I don’t think the Heat will start Wade on Westy either. Battier will probably start on Harden if they come off the bench at the same time. Wade might also be on him, depending on fouls and how the flow of the game is going. Heat don’t have anyone to guard Harden.
Also if the Heat start running a lot of PnR with Bosh I expect to see a lot of Collison in this series.
"Biggest keys to winning for each team in this match up."
Chuck: The Thunder one seems easy and I believe its their depth/lack of reliance on their stars. As seen in Game 4 of the WCF with major contributions by Ibaka, Perk, and Nick. I guess the Heat's will be their superior D. I don't have access to the data I need to back this up but I believe the Heat were one of the top defensive team throughout the season. OKC had plenty of TOs in the regular season but have seemed to fix that issue, but I feel the Heat could cause at least a handful.
Cody: Its very hard to just turn on and off defense, and the Heat haven’t been pressed all playoffs by any sort of fast paced offensive team. It all depends on Bosh. Thunder are going to be running three point shooters off the arc, and contesting hard at the rim, so that will leave a lot of space for Bosh to operate in the mid range.
Chuck: That didn't really go at the question but whatevs I guess. I haven't really seen either team play more than the necessary amount of D than to win.
Cody: Yes it did, Bosh is the biggest key.
"Anything else you want to hit on? Legacy?"
Cody: Three scenarios can happen:
1) OKC wins, everyone blames LeBron and talks about how OKC is set to take over the NBA for 6 years.
2) Heat win and LeBron plays average, everyone blames LeBron and talks about how OKC is set to take over the NBA for 6 years.
3) Heat win and LeBron plays awesome, Everyone says finally LeBron figured it out and hype a Heat-OKC rivalry comparing it to the Lakers and Celtics. I don’t see any other outcome.
Chuck: I see one more scenario with a similar outcome as Scenario 3 where LeBron plays out of his mind but OKC wins and everybody talks up the rivalry similar to a Lakers-Celtics. Any chance Heat blow up their team if they lose? I say no.
Cody: If Heat lose, they will blame LeBron, no other way around it. Everyone that talks about blowing things up are dumb. Who are you going to get rid of? And who are you going to bring in? Unless you are bringing in Dwight for a long term deal, there is no move to be made. Heat need to do more what the Spurs do and find and develop young athletic talent to play in their system, not sign old farts like Battier, and Mike, and Curry.
Kind of funny reading this knowing Brees is an OKC homer. I've yet to see Lebron be put on his ass. Perkins can't even knock down Wade:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpCUlaYRN2U
I am rooting for the Heat but mainly because it's time Lebron got his ring. Nothing really against OKC.
I thing maybe you guys did overlook some things though.
Matchups: This will be interesting for all the reasons listed above and more. Say the Heat play small then Perkins guards Bosh and Ibaka guards Lebron. Lebron will drive right past him. Really I have yet to see it, but OKC should double Lebron every time and try and get the ball out of his hands. This would throw everything into disarray. I don't really see how Brees comments make sense either where Bosh is the only upper hand matchup wise. Lebron has the advantage over anybody in the league including Durant. The Thunder have an advantage somewhere on the floor at all times if they play their big 3. Not sure we will see it that much though.
X-Factor: For the Heat, I think it really depends on how Lebron plays defense on Durant. There is a reason no one has a good game against him in the playoffs. When he guarded the so-called MVP last year in the playoffs, Rose shot 6%. Not 60, 16, but 6. If Lebron can mostly keep Durant in check, then it changes the Thunder's approach. I totally expect Westbrook to get 25-7-5 every game. Lots of analysts say Bosh is the X-factor, but he will probably go for 15-7 and I doubt he keeps hitting threes.
For the Thunder, I think it's how they utilize Harden. If they play Westbrook, Harden, and Durant together, that gives them a huge advantage. Heat don't have enough defenders to guard them all. It's one of the weird things where NBA coaches think they need to have a bench 2nd unit. That is true but if the OKC3 play together, I think it gives the Heat huge problems.
Liability: Heat it's the bench and their pumpkin chuckers. I don't think you can call Miller, Jones, and Battier 3pt specialist if they never make them. Battier has been better lately but he still has some awful ones. Also, if Miller is in the game, they should isolate everytime for his guy. If Thabo could take him off the dribble.
Thunder's problem I think is going to be Perkins honestly. He doesn't match up with Bosh and so he will be pulled out of the lane taking away his rebounding and shot blocking. Foul trouble aside, his +/- won't be very good. Some of that depends on how they call the game. I think either tight or loose works more to the Heat's advantage. Call it tight and Lebron will get everybody in foul trouble, call it loose and Lebron will effectively take Durant out of the game. The refs have been horrible for all of the playoffs so we will see what happens for the Finals. Joey Crawford needs to quit though.
Last thought: The one thing I don't want to see is flops. Everyone does it now but some are just ridiculous. I lost some respect for my NBA fantasy homey Harden after these playoffs. It's one thing to flop when a guy touches you but you should be kicked out for stuff like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QU7mlNKgFg&feature=youtu.be
Although for the other side, I'm not sure you can knock a 6'8" guy down by slapping his hand:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUXE6bH3qTQ
Who's going to win: As I said above, I am rooting for the Heat. I expect the games to go:
1-OKC
2-Heat
3-Heat
4-OKC
5-Heat
6-Heat
Games 3-4-5 could go any way but I expect Heat to win 2 out of 3 at home. Really Game 2 is probably the pivotal game but the way the playoffs have been going, anything is possible. Overall hopefully it's just a good series with no flops.